Prime Minister of Slovenia Miro Cerar is politically ‘dead’. He has been used and exploited, and now he will be tossed aside before too long. He will end up just like Zoran Jankovič, Gregor Virant, and Alenka Bratušek. They all have one thing in common. All of them have a label on their packaging saying: ‘Discard after use.’
The beginning of this article is addressed to Miro Cerar personally because he is apparently the only one who does not know that he is about to be thrown on the ‘scrapyard’. Even political illiterates know this, but he remains oblivious. If the Prime Minister of Slovenia were aware of this fact, he would start working for the benefit of Slovenia and its citizens in these last few months. He has nothing to lose, but he can at least make amends for all the bad things he has done or allowed to happen
National Assembly elections will be held this autumn
There is a lot of evidence for this claim. Although the majority believe that this coalition will easily endure until the regular elections, which are scheduled for May of next year, this is far from likely. Why?
– Miro Cerar is politically and rhetorically so inept that not even the best and very expensive PR consultants can help him. His charisma is on the level of an amateur actor in a village theatre who has been given a small role only because he wanted it so badly.
– Miro Cerar and his Modern Centre Party (SMC) are completely lacking in content, ideas, and backbone. They are merely loyal lackeys following the instructions of men in the background. It is a party without a programme and without a political identity. In truth this is an interest group and not a political party.
– Cerar’s inability to solve the most trivial problems and his utter incompetence outside the field of legal writing is threatening the entire Left, which might suffer irreparable damage before the regular elections.
– The opinion within diplomatic circles is that the decision of the arbitral tribunal will already become known this April. Whatever the decision, it will be unfavourable for the Left. If it is favourable for Slovenia, granting us access to international waters, Croats will not accept it. The question will arise of how to enforce this decision in practice. Cooperating with Russia will certainly not help us in this case. Quite the contrary. The confusion of our foreign policy, our shift away from the USA, NATO, and the Visegrad Group, has placed us among third-class countries with a completely negligible impact on the major powers. And the ineptitude of the Prime Minister, the incompetence of Foreign Minister Erjavec, and the political rift within the government coalition and even the SMC ensure that we will not be able to do more than present Zagreb with a few diplomatic notes of protest.
– If the decision of the arbitral tribunal is unfavourable for Slovenia, failing to grant Slovenia access to international waters, the ruling politicians will be in even greater trouble since the National Assembly of Slovenia unanimously adopted the following Decision in February 2013. ‘The Republic of Slovenia declares that the task of the arbitral tribunal is to determine the territorial contact of the territorial waters of the Republic of Slovenia with the high sea, i.e. Slovenia maintains the right of junction to international waters which it had on Slovenia’s independence day, 25 June 1991. The Republic of Slovenia will consider any decision of the arbitral tribunal which would not ensure territorial contact of the territorial sea of the Republic of Slovenia with the high sea in accordance with point b of the first paragraph of Article 3 and point b of Article 4 of the Arbitration Agreement, which ensures the realisation of the vital interest of the Republic of Slovenia, as a decision ultra vires, i.e. in violation of the mandate of the arbitral tribunal.’ This Decision clearly charges the government to reject the decision of the arbitration if Slovenia is not given access to international waters. Now try to imagine Miro Cerar trying to defend and implement such a decision. Regardless of one’s good will and imagination, it is impossible. The effectiveness and determination of Miro Cerar simply stops at two or three propaganda statements which generally have nothing in common with the actual situation.
– If it is true that another migrant wave is approaching, this will be another important motive for early elections. Although he has recently still advocated open borders and the idea of ‘refugees welcome’, Miro Cerar will have to close the borders. And this is a serious problem that is beyond his ability to solve. Therefore, he will prefer to escape into safe, well-paid professorial waters. After all, he has been brought up as a leftist and is confident in his beliefs, and leftists solve problems by running away from them.
– The next months will see the election of four Constitutional Court judges. Irrespective of the relatively noticeable resistance by Borut Pahor, the best-case scenario is the election of four leftists, who will easily bulldoze the department with ideology. In this way, the men in the background will ensure that they receive a stable majority at the Constitutional Court of Slovenia and a possible election victory by Janez Janša will be prevented. Because the Constitutional Court will prevent any serious change which could jeopardise the positions of communists and their successors in the economy and the judiciary. When this project is completed, the mission of Cerar and the SMC will have been accomplished.
– The economic and financial indicators are in fact not as good as they are made to appear. The situation regarding healthcare and social policy is catastrophic and can no longer be concealed. The judiciary has been exposed, and Cerar’s empty phrases about morality and the rule of law have become ridiculous and even insulting for the majority of Slovenian citizens. The actual situation in the country is bad and getting worse. The media can no longer hide these matters. They can also no longer hide the ineptitude of Miro Cerar and all his ministers. It is only a matter of time before Karl Erjavec takes the offensive and starts demanding more money for pensioners. And the Social Democrats have de facto been in the opposition for quite some time now.