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[Public opinion poll] If the elections were held this Sunday, the coalition partners would easily form an even stronger government!

Foto: STA

According to the public opinion poll conducted by Parsifal agency, the coalition parties SDS, NSi, DeSUS and SMC could form an even stronger government, which would get a total of 50.2 percent of all votes if the elections were held this Sunday. Nova24TV spoke to political analyst Miloš Čirič, who said that the results of the poll show that the balance of power between the political poles and those who know which party they would choose in the election, has stabilized. The good results of the polls regarding the coalition and the SDS party in particular, show that people still feel that the government is doing good work.

Between the 2nd and 4th of November 2020, the Parsifal Agency conducted a public opinion poll on current events in Slovenia. The survey included 704 people. In this article, we will focus on the public opinion poll about the elections and take a closer look at Parsifal’s results of who would do best in the elections, if they were held this Sunday.

The parties of the current coalition would receive more than 50 percent of the votes from those who would definitely attend the election and have already decided who they would vote for
Among those who would definitely participate in the election (score 5 out of 5) and already know who they would vote for (238 respondents), the highest share – 35.5 percent would support the SDS party, followed by the SD party with 18.2 percent, the LMŠ party (14.2 percent), NSi (8.4 percent), Levica (the Left – 8.4 percent) and DeSUS (4.9 percent). 2.6 percent of the respondents would vote for SAB, 2.4 percent for the SNS party, 2.2 for SLS+NSLS, 1.4 for SMC, 1.3 for Pirati (Pirates), and 0.4 percent of the respondents would vote for the Dobra država party (Good country). The results show that the current coalition could easily form the same coalition again.

Javnomnenjska anketa Parsifal, koga bi volili tisti, ki se bodo zagotovo udeležili volitev (ocena 5) in so opredeljeni 2/11/2020 (foto: Parsifal)

Taking a closer look at all of the voters (and not just the ones who already know who they would vote for), if the elections to the Slovenian National Assembly were held this Sunday, the biggest share of the voters would support the SDS party (21.3 percent), followed by the SD party (11.1 percent), LMŠ (10.1 percent), Levica (5.9 percent), DeSUS (4.7 percent), and NSi (4.2 percent). These parties are then followed by SAB, which would receive 2.4 percent of the votes, 2 percent of the votes would go to the SNS party, followed by Pirati with 1.6 percent, SLS+NSLS with 1 percent, SMC with 0.5 percent, and Dobra država with 0.4 percent of the votes.

34.7 percent of the voters remain undecided. This category includes those who do not know who they would vote for, those who would not attend the elections, those who would not vote for any of the parties, and those who would opt for some other party.

Among those who already know who they would vote for, in a sample of 476 participants, the SDS would get 32.7 percent of the votes, the SD party 17 percent, and the LMŠ party 15.4 percent. The Levica party follows with 9 percent, then comes DeSUS with 7.2 percent, NSi with 6.5 percent, SAB with 3.7 percent, SNS with 3 percent, Pirati with 2.5 percent, SLS+NSLS with 1.5 percent, 0.8 percent of the respondents would vote for SMC, and 0.6 for Dobra država.

Among those who would definitely participate in the elections, there were 395 of them included in the poll, the highest percentage – 28.0 percent would support the SDS party, followed by the SD party (14.4 percent), LMŠ (11.1 percent), NSi (6.6) percent), Levica (6.6 percent) and DeSUS (3.8 percent). Then comes SAB with 2.1 percent of the votes, SNS would receive 1.9 percent of the votes, SLS+NSLS would get 1.7 percent of the votes, SMC 1.1 percent, Pirati one percent, and Dobra država 0.3 percent. 18.6 percent of those who would definitely go to the polls do not know who they would vote for, 2.4 percent of the respondents said that they would not vote for any party, and 0.2 would vote for some other party.

Political analyst Miloš Čirič commented on the results of Parsifal’s public opinion poll for Nova24TV. According to Čirič, Parsifal’s poll confirms that the relationship between the two political poles and those who already know who they would vote for, has stabilized, and no party has so far been successful in convincing those who do not know who they would vote for yet. SDS’s popularity is closely related to the assessment of the government’s work, and Čirič believes that NSi has its own electorate and is gaining new voters very slowly, while the SMC party still does not know which group of voters it should focus on. As for the left-wing opposition, the balance of power shows that the appointment of Tanja Fajon to the post of president of the SD party only helped stop the voters from fleeing to the Levica party, while the tie between the LMŠ and the SD party shows how limited the range of politics, led by the List of Marjan Šarec, really is. We are publishing Čirič’s full analysis below:

“This public opinion poll also confirms the belief that the relationship between the two political poles and those who already know which party they would vote for, has somehow stabilized and that no party is significantly gaining from the pool of the voters who have still not decided who they would vote for. This also tells us that none of the parties show any significant differences which would make them stand out from the framework that has been established. Among the government parties, the SDS party has maintained its positing. Its score is tied with how successful the work of the government is. NSi has a constant electoral base, and it is gaining new voters very slowly. The SMC party apparently still does not know which voters they should target. There are also no differences between the opposition parties, which would be significant enough to give wings to one of the parties. It is obvious that certain relations have been established between them, but that none of them can find a formula with which to start gaining voters outside of that. The mere fact that the LMŠ party has maintained its position in relation to the SD party, shows the limited scope of LMŠ policy, and also that the new SD leadership did not bring about a significant shift, except for stopping the Levica party.”

The survey was conducted between the 2nd and 4th of November. It included 730 respondents, of which 49.6 percent were women. The average age of the participants is 51.6 years, and the standard deviation is 15.9 years. The majority of the respondents are from the oldest age group (43.2 percent), a slightly smaller share of participants belongs to the middle age group (36.6 percent), and the smallest number of respondents is from the youngest age group (20.2 percent). The majority of the respondents have completed high school (34.3 percent), followed by those with completed high education or higher (27.3 percent), 24.4 percent of respondents have finished vocational school, and 14 percent have either completed or have not completed primary school. The majority of the respondents currently reside in a small village or hamlet (55.2 percent), followed by those who live in the city (28.2 percent) or a smaller town (16.6 percent). Most of the respondents are from Central Slovenia (26.7 percent), followed by the Podravska (14.6 percent) and Savinjska (12.8 percent) region.

Aleš Ernecl