Opinion poll: The support for Cerar’s government has fallen below 25 percent. If early elections are held this year, SDS will win

(Photo: iStock/STA)

The last opinion pool has shown that the support for the government is still falling despite numerous ‘New Year gifts’. In the past month, it has fallen by 14 percentage points while the support for the currently biggest opposition party, the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), is growing continuously, and if early elections are held this year, the latter would get almost a third of the seats in the National Assembly.

The support for the biggest opposition party SDS has grown by 4.8 percentage points (from 23.4% to 28.2%) in the past month (in comparison to the comparable Parsifal survey published on 4 December 2016), while the support for the ruling Modern Centre Party (SMC) fell by 3.8 percentage points (from 15.9% to 12.1%).

Which party would you vote for if early elections were held this year?

(Source: Parsifal SC)

(Source: Parsifal SC)

The opposite has happened to the coalition party of the Social Democrats (SD), which has overtaken SMC in popularity; its support has increased by 1.3 percentage points (from 13.9% to 15.2%). In the past month, a fall in popularity has also been experienced by New Slovenia (NSi) and the United Left (ZL). The support for NSi fell by 3 percentage points (from 11.3% to 8.7%), and the support for ZL fell by 1.6 percentage points (from 8.9% to 7.3%).

Only decided voters

(Source: Parsifal SC)

(Source: Parsifal SC)

The support for Cerar’s government keeps falling, this time it is below 25 percent
The government of Miro Cerar has not satisfied the expectations of a large majority of the respondents (67.9%). For less than a quarter (23.2%), the expectations have been satisfied, while the rest (8.8%) cannot decide. The support for the government of Miro Cerar keeps falling. Compared to a comparable survey that we have published on 4 December 2016, the support for the government has fallen by 14 percentage points (a month ago it was at 37.2%).

Has the government of Miro Cerar satisfied your expectations?

(Source: Parsifal SC)

(Source: Parsifal SC)

If we take a closer look at the results, the middle age group (35–54 years) is the most dissatisfied with Cerar’s government as the percentage of dissatisfied people exceeds 73%. Furthermore, 70% of those with a vocational or secondary education believe that the government has not fulfilled its promises.

Prof. dr. Matej Makarovič (photo: STA).

Prof. dr. Matej Makarovič (photo: STA).

Prof. Dr. Matej Makarovič: ‘The drop in the support for the government is not surprising. First the expectations were set unrealistically high, and then there have been no realistic achievements which the government could boast about either. Particularly marked is the discrepancy between the moral standards that were originally declared and the actual practices. Therefore, the unsatisfied expectations are an understandable result.’

Slovenians have different expectations concerning the result of the arbitration
This year the result of the arbitration concerning the sea border between Slovenia and Croatia will be revealed. The opinions and expectations concerning the result and whether it will be favourable for Slovenia are divided. Indeed, the respondents have been very split about this question.

This year the result of the arbitration concerning the sea border between Slovenia and Croatia will be revealed. Do you believe the result will be favourable or unfavourable for Slovenia?

(Source: Parsifal SC)

(Source: Parsifal SC)

43.8% believe the arbitration will be unfavourable for Slovenia and 43.4% that it will be favourable. According to prof. dr. Matej Makarovič, the result ‘indicates the pronounced uncertainty in this area. But the uncertainty is also an expression of the distrust in the ruling politicians, who have traditionally expressed optimism in this area.’

Jure Ferjan