“For several months now, we have been observing the consolidation of relations in the political space. It is clear that the leading SDS party is ahead of the left-wing opposition trio, and that Nova Slovenija has stable support. A good year and a half before the elections, the key issue is, above all, the perspective of the liberal centre. Right now, it is unclear whether any of the parties which are currently in parliament can reach the threshold. It would be good for them to think about connecting in a broader liberal bloc, which could be a stable partner for the centre-right coalition in the next term,” Sebastjan Jeretič told us about measuring the support for the political parties.
Despite a strong negative campaign of the media outlets in the hands of the left-wing political and economic currents, and the political attacks by the left-wing opposition parties, the largest government party, the Slovenian Democratic Party (Slovenska demokratska stranka – SDS), is still in the lead, in Parsifal’s public opinion polls. The Slovenian Democratic Party would get the support of 22.9 percent of all voters. Among those who already know who they would vote for, the number rises to 34.7 percent of the voters. And among those who are sure they will take part in the elections, 34.3 percent of the voters would vote for the Slovenian Democratic Party. A record-high result would be achieved by the party, among those who will definitely take part in the elections and already know who they would vote for. The SDS party would receive 40.7 percent of all the votes and would thus become the winner.
If the elections to the National Assembly of Slovenia were to be held this Sunday, the SDS party would win with 22.7 percent, the Social Democrats (Socialni Demokrati – SD) would come second with 11.6 percent, followed by the List of Marjan Šarec (Lista Marjana Šarca – LMŠ) with 10 percent, the Left party (Levica) with 5.3 percent, the Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia (Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije – DeSUS) with 3.6 percent, New Slovenia – Christian Democrats (Nova Slovenija – NSi) with three percent, the Party of Alenka Bratušek (Stranka Alenke Bratušek – SAB) with 2.4 percent, the Slovenian National Party (Slovenska nacionalna stranka – SNS) with 2.3 percent. These parties are followed by Pirates (Pirati), the Good Country (Dobra država), the Slovenian People’s Party + the New People’s Party of Slovenia (Slovenska ljudska stranka + Nova ljudska stranka Slovenije), the Modern Centre Party (Stranka modernega centra), which all have the support of less than two percent of the voters.
Among the voters who have already decided who they would vote for, the SDS party would win with 34.7 percent, followed by the SD party with 17.8 percent, LMŠ with 15.3 percent, Levica with eight percent, DeSUS with 5.4 percent, NSi with 4.6 percent, SAB 3.7 percent, and SNS 3.5 percent. Pirati would get 2.3 percent, Dobra država and SLS + NLS two percent, and the SMC party would get 0.7 percent.
Among those who will definitely take part in the elections (score five out of five), 34.3 percent would support the SDS party, which is the highest support for any of the parties, followed by SD (15.1 percent), LMŠ (12.4 percent), Levica (7.4 percent), and NSi (4.0 percent). Other parties would remain below the election threshold.
The SDS party would receive as much as 40.7 percent of the votes, among those who already know who they will vote for, and will definitely participate in the elections
The SDS party’s lead in the poll is further increased among those who will definitely participate in the elections (score five out of five) and already know who they will vote for, reaching 40.7 percent. SDS is followed by the SD party with eighteen percent, LMŠ (14.7 percent), Levica (8.8 percent), and NSi (4.8 percent). The remaining parties would not get the necessary four percent minimum to reach the electoral threshold.
In spite of the fictional and fabricated scandals, support for the government has increased slightly. It has increased from 40.8 percent to 43.3 percent, compared to the previous measurement. However, 51.2 percent of the respondents do not support the government. According to Jeretič, the support for the government is based on the people’s feeling that the government is doing good work. The measures for the recovery of the economy will play an important role in this aspect.
On the other hand, the government is currently facing a brutal media campaign against itself. According to Jeretič, it turned out that the cycling protests are limited to the radical part of Janez Janša’s opponents, and that “with slogans about the fight against fascism and dictatorship, they cannot gain the support of the masses.”
Sebastjan Jeretič, an expert on Slovenian political affairs and the designer of the SD party’s victory in the 2008 parliamentary elections, warns that the government will get closer to the public with the measures and reforms that are on the agenda, “it will also be able to overcome the media manipulation and lies, as well as raise its general support.”
In this poll, the support for the government is greater compared to other public opinion polls, but even here, the majority of the people do not support the government. The similarity of this poll to the others is that the SDS party has a very big lead over the other parties. It is also obvious that even though the majority of the people do not support the government, this is somehow not reflected in the ratings of the SDS party. Nor does it help the parties of the left-wing opposition strengthen themselves.
And as for the further trends in the upcoming months, once again, it will all depend on the upcoming factors. We know we are dealing with a second wave of the coronavirus epidemic. The measures that the government has taken or will take are unpopular. Perhaps we can expect that in the short run, support for the government will decrease. Certain measures, which are restrictive in their nature, are always unpopular. However, the long-term effects of this can be positive, in terms of support for the government.
The interpellations, like the one against Minister Hojs, will certainly not pay off. In fact, Hojs’ interpellation is the most absurd and unreasonable interpellation in the entire history of Slovenian parliamentarism. It seems that the only thing that the Slovenian left-wing opposition is capable of doing is the imposing of certain ideological themes that are related to the past.
These themes are extremely irrelevant to the present. The left-wing parties impose their leftist ideology, which has generally proven to be quite harmful. All of this is merely a depiction of imaginary ideological enemies. The main complaint against Minister Hojs is that he allegedly allowed the concert to be organized. In a society that considers itself democratic and open, the problem is that they allowed for a concert to be organized.
Talking about ustashis and fascism is merely a tactic of the left-wing, stemming from the former regime, when the authorities attempted to tarnish the reputations of all those who did not defend their ideology with such constructs, anytime it was possible. The current opposition has nothing to offer. Because of this, it cannot be credible.
Jeretič warns that the current opposition is filing interpellation motions with no substance
The opposition has decided to try to overthrow the government by filing the interpretation motions. After the interpellation against the Minister of the Interior Aleš Hojs, the same procedure will probably happen again shortly, this time, against the Minister of Agriculture, Food and Forestry, Aleksandra Pivec, Ph.D., and the acting president of the SD party, Tanja Fajon, has announced that she intends to file a constitutional charge against the Prime Minister Janez Janša.
Jeretič has told us that this is a tool commonly used by the opposition, “but the current opposition parties are not exactly good at it.” The interpellations against Ministers Hojs and Počivalšek had no real substance to them, “so the ministers’ task of presenting the facts and rejecting the allegations were fairly simple.” Jeretič warns that the upcoming interpellation against Pivec will be special because “her own party also support the teardown.”
In spite of all of this, political analyst Jeretič says that many stakeholders say that Pivec is one of the best agriculture ministers so far, “but she lost the political support of her parliamentary group. That is why the interpellation is more interesting – because of the tactical position, not because of the elements of the content,” Sebastjan Jeretič believes.
Methodological sample of the poll:
The survey included 701 respondents, of which 49.6 percent were women. The average age of the participants is 50.3 years, and the standard deviation is 16.4 years. The majority of the respondents are from the oldest age group (39.9 percent), a slightly smaller number of participants belong to the middle age group (37.9 percent), and the smallest number of respondents is from the youngest age group (22.2 percent). The majority of the respondents have completed high school (36.7 percent), followed by those with completed high education or higher (29.5 percent), 22.8 percent of respondents have finished vocational school, and 11.1 percent have either completed or have not completed primary school. The majority of the respondents currently reside in a small village or hamlet (51.3 percent), followed by those who live in the city (30.9 percent) or a smaller town (17.8 percent). Most of the respondents are from the central region (25.1 percent), followed by Podravska (16.6 percent) and Savinjska region (12.2 percent).